How did Boeing lose so badly to SpaceX?

The story of Boeing's struggle against SpaceX is the story of two companies, each with a different approach to space exploration. It is the story of a government-backed giant losing his land to an upstart in the private sector.

Genesis of competition

The competition between Boeing and SpaceX began about a decade ago when NASA's top leaders on human spaceflight held an important meeting at the agency's headquarters in Washington, D.C. The agenda was clear: the choice of a replacement vehicle for the retired space shuttle was instrumental in the construction of the International Space Station (ISS).

In 2014, NASA narrowed the competition for the crew to just two companies, Boeing and SpaceX. At the time, the space agency gave Boeing $4.2 billion to fund the development of Starliner. This was a pivotal moment in the history of space exploration as it marked the beginning of a new era where private companies were given the responsibility of transporting astronauts into space.

Having two spacecraft carrying a crew provides redundancy for NASA and the nation. The program has always wanted two very different spacecraft with different procedures and teams to support them, to have a backup in case one ship is sidelined due to a safety or other issue. The strategy of having a differentiated repetition was based on the understanding that space travel is inherently challenging.

Boeing's Starliner aircraft made an unmanned approach to the International Space Station during its second test flight, on May 20, 2022. This marked an important milestone for Boeing as it represented Starliner's readiness to withstand astronauts. However, the journey to this point has not been smooth. The astronaut's first appearance of the capsule has been postponed several times due to technical issues, most of which he encountered during its first test flight in 2019.

On the other hand, the crew of SpaceX's Crew Dragon debuted in May 2020. SpaceX began operating its operational missions in 2020 and has sent 11 such crews to the International Space Station so far. This was a major breakthrough for SpaceX in the race to space.

Intense Rivalry: Boeing vs SpaceX

While SpaceX launched its third crew of astronauts to the International Space Station aboard the Crew Dragon module on April 23, Boeing was still testing the reusable CST-100 Starliner crew module. This was a major breakthrough for SpaceX in the race to space.

The Boeing Starliner is a crew capsule designed to transport up to seven astronauts to the International Space Station. It is 16.5 feet tall and 15 feet in diameter¹. The capsule is launched over the United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket, which transports the module into orbit¹. Unlike SpaceX's Crew Dragon capsules, which land in the Gulf of Mexico and need to be retrieved, Starliner is designed to return to Earth.

Boeing faced many challenges on its journey. The airline expects to conduct its second unmanned test flight in August or September 2021, followed by manned flights shortly after. However, there are some questions about the availability of missiles for Starliner. Boeing purchased enough Atlas V missiles from the United Launch Alliance for six Starliner operational missions, but after that, the Atlas V will be withdrawn from service.

Mark Naby, Boeing's director of the Commercial Crew Program, said the company was looking at "different options" for Starliner launch vehicles. These options include buying the Falcon 9 from SpaceX, paying the United Launch Alliance to evaluate its new Vulcan rocket, or paying Blue Origin for its upcoming New Glenn booster.

In hindsight, it's clear that NASA got a much better deal than SpaceX in the commercial crew competition. SpaceX began sending operational missions to the space station in 2020, while Boeing's Starliner is not expected to make its first operational mission until the second half of 2023.

Future

NASA has confirmed that it has been awarded five additional crew transfer missions to SpaceX, bringing the total number of manned missions SpaceX has contracted to fly for NASA until 2030 to 14. In turn, Boeing will fly six flights during the life of the station. However, NASA has the option to buy more seats from any of the providers.

NASA's decision to buy all remaining seats from SpaceX is likely due to past performance and price. SpaceX began sending operational missions to the space station in 2020, while Boeing's Starliner is not expected to make its first operational mission until the second half of 2023.

There are some questions about the availability of missiles for Starliner. Boeing purchased enough Atlas V missiles from the United Launch Alliance for six Starliner operational missions, but after that, the Atlas V will be withdrawn from service. During a press conference last week, Boeing's program manager for commercial crew, Mark Naby, said the company was looking for "different options" for Starliner launch vehicles. These options include buying the Falcon 9 from SpaceX, paying the United Launch Alliance to evaluate its new Vulcan rocket, or paying Blue Origin for its upcoming New Glenn booster.

Several space projects, including Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, and the United Launch Alliance — a joint venture between Lockheed Martin and Boeing — are preparing to launch new heavyweight rockets this year to compete with the backbone of SpaceX's Falcon 9.

In the latest development in the satellite industry, Boeing decided to waive its license for the low-Earth orbit (LEO) constellation satellites, a project that would have rivaled SpaceX's Starlink network. Boeing's plans to build a broadband internet constellation are officially over.

In conclusion, the competition between Boeing and SpaceX is far from over. While SpaceX has taken the lead, the race to space is like a marathon, not a sprint. The future will reveal whether Boeing is able to overcome its challenges and catch up with SpaceX. The competition between these two giants will undoubtedly continue to shape the future of space exploration.