Will the earth keep heating up?

The summer of 2023 was a season of extreme weather fluctuations. In June, uncontrolled bushfires swept through parts of Canada. In July, the world recorded the highest global temperature ever, held it for three consecutive days, and then dropped again on the fourth day. From July to August, extreme heat blanketed large parts of Europe, Asia and North America, while India faced a heavy monsoon season. A historic forest fire engulfed the Maui region, devastating an entire city. The summer of 2024 promises higher temperatures!

These extreme weather events are essentially the result of climate change caused by humans continuing to burn coal, oil and natural gas. Climate scientists agree that extreme weather is likely to become more frequent and intense in the coming years unless something is done, on a continuous and planetary scale, to rein in global temperatures.

What restraint are they talking about?

To prevent the worsening and potentially irreversible effects of climate change, there is an internationally agreed figure. The average temperature in the world should not exceed the average pre-industrial temperature by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. As more regions around the world face extreme weather, it is useful to assess this 1.5-degree threshold, where our planet stands relative to this threshold, and what can be done on a global, regional, and personal level.

Why 1.5 ° C?

In 2015, in response to the growing need for climate impacts, almost every country in the world signed the Paris Agreement, a landmark international treaty under which 195 countries pledged to keep the Earth's temperature "well below 2°C above what it was before the Industrial Revolution, with the aim of limiting temperature rise to no more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. There is nothing magic about the number 1.5, except that it is an ambitious agreed goal. Nothing says that if, for example, the temperature rises by 1.51 degrees Celsius, it will certainly be the end of the world. Similarly, if the temperature remains at an increase of 1.49 degrees, it does not mean that we will eliminate all the effects of climate change. It is known that the lower the target set for temperature increase, the lower the risk of climate impacts.

How close are we to 1.5°C?

In 2022, the average global temperature was about 1.15°C higher than pre-industrial levels. According to the World Meteorological Organization, La Niña has recently contributed to temporary cooling and mitigation of the effects of human-induced climate change. La Niña lasted for three years and ended in March 2023. In May, the World Meteorological Organization released a report predicting a high probability (66%) that the world would cross the 1.5°C threshold in the next four years. This violation is likely driven by human-induced climate change, along with warming El Niño – a cyclical climate phenomenon that temporarily warms ocean areas and pushes global temperatures up. The temperature is likely to fluctuate between 1.1°C and 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels. Although there is a high chance that the world will become hotter than the 1.5-degree limit as a result of El Niño, crossing the threshold will be temporary, and the Paris Agreement, which aims for the long term (its average over several decades, not one year), will not fail. But even if we can control the average at the global level, we will see extreme events, due to climate change.

More than just a number:

To keep the planet's long-term average temperature below the 1.5-degree threshold, the world will have to reach net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This means that, in terms of emissions from burning coal, oil, and natural gas, the whole world will have to remove as much carbon as it releases into the atmosphere. On an individual level, there are things that can be done to help reduce personal emissions, and potentially limit rising global temperatures. We are consumers of products that either embody greenhouse gases, such as meat, clothing, computers and homes, or are directly responsible for greenhouse gas emissions, such as when we use cars, airplanes, electricity and air conditioners. Our daily choices therefore affect the amount of emissions added to the atmosphere. But to get people to action, we need to reach them not only by convincing them to be good citizens, and by saying it's good for the world to stay below 1.5 degrees, but also by showing how they will be affected on an individual level, focusing on how climate change affects the water cycle and the frequency of extreme weather such as heat waves. But real climate progress requires a radical change in how we access energy. This is a monumental, but not impossible, task. Are you personally willing to make sacrifices and change your lifestyle?

Even if all human greenhouse gas emissions cease today, the Earth's temperature will continue to rise for a few decades, as ocean currents bring excess heat stored in the deep ocean to the surface. Once this excess heat is radiated into space, Earth's temperature will stabilize. It takes work and patience, but it's worth it.